Mutilate vs Backstab
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Overview Edit
 In the following theoretical calculation Mutilate Rank 4 is compared to Backstab Rank 10. The rogue is assumed to have full Seal Fate, Opportunity, Improved Backstab and Mutilate for comparison purposes.
 The [Gladiator's Shanker] is used in the main and offhand.
 The Rogue is assumed to have a 25% base Critical chance including talents and 1400 Attack Power.
 The imagined victim is assumed to have no Mitigation at all and is also assumed to be poisoned all the time.
 Both Backstab and Mutilate cost the same amount of energy but if glyphed Mutilate will cost a bit less energy.
Calculation Edit
Definitions Edit
Critical Strike Chance: Crit = 25% = 0.25 Backstab Critical Chance: BSCrit = 25% + 30% = 55% = 0.55 Attack power: AP = 1400
Average weapon damage: AWD = (131 + 197) / 2 = 164 Attack Power modifier: APM = 1400 / 14 * 1.7 = 170 Weapon Damage: WD = AWD + APM = 334 Opportunity multiplier: Opp = 1 + (0.04 * 5) = 1.2 Offhand Weapon Damage Penalty: OffPen = 0.5 + (0.05 * Dual Wield Specialization Rank) = 0.5 + (0.05 * 0) = 0.5 Critical Strike Damage Multiplier: CritMult = 2 + (0.06 * 5) = 2.3 Poison Multiplier: Pois = 1.5
Mutilate Damage Edit
Base Mainhand Damage: BMHD = WD + 101 = 435 Mainhand Damage = BMHD * Pois * Opp = 435 * 1.2 * 1.5 = 783 Mainhand Critical Damage = 783 * CritMult = 783 * 2.3 = 1800.9 Base Offhand Damage: BOHD = WD * OffPen + 101 * (1 + 0.1* Dual Wield Specialization Rank) = 334* 0.5 + 101 * 1 = 268 Offhand Damage = BOHD * Pois * Opp = 268 * 1.2 * 1.5 = 482.4 Offhand Critical Damage = 482 * CritMult = 482.4 * 2.3 = 1109.5 Chance For Each Possible Event: Event 1: Mainhand Doesn't Crit AND Offhand Doesn't Crit = 0.75 * 0.75 = 0.5625 Event 2: Mainhand Crits And Offhand Doesn't Crit = 0.25 * 0.75 = 0.1875 Event 3: Mainhand Doesn't Crit and Offhand Crits = 0.75 * 0.25 = 0.1875 Event 4: Mainhand Crits and Offhand Crits = 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625 Damage For Event 1: 783 + 482.4 = 1265.4 Damage For Event 2: 1800.9 + 482.4 = 2283.3 Damage For Event 3: 783 + 1109.5 = 1892.5 Damage For Event 4: 1800.9 + 1109.5 = 2910.4 Average Mutilate Damage: 0.5625 * 1265 + 0.1875 * 2282.9 + 0.1875 * 1892.5 + 0.0625 * 2910.4 = 1676.65
Backstab Damage Edit
NonCritical Damage = Opp * ((WD) * 1.5 + 255 ) = 1.2 * ((334) * 1.5 + 255) = 907.2 Critical Damage = 907.2 * 2.3 = 2086.6 Average Backstab Damage = 907.2 * (1  BSCrit) + 2086.6 * (BSCrit) = 1555.8
Simulation Edit
Lets assume that the rogue hits his target 100 times with Mutilate and 100 times with Backstab.
Mutilate Edit
Even if both weapons crit, only one extra Combo point is generated. Total Damage = 1676.65 * 100 = 167,665
Combo points gained: 100 * (CP From Mutilate) + 100 * % of Events With A Single Crit = 100 * 2 + 100 * (.1875 + .1875 + .0625) = 243.75 = 243
Backstab Edit
Total Damage = 1555.8 * 100 = 155,580
Combo points gained: 100 * (CP From Backstab) + 100 * BSCrit = 100 * 1 + 100 * .55 = 155
Summary Edit
In 100 attacks:
Mutilate does 167,665 damage to the target and grants 243 Combo points.
Backstab does 155,580 damage to the target and grants 155 Combo points.
NOTE1: The above calculations do not include many talents, notably combat potency, surprise attacks, and relentless strikes.
NOTE2: The above calculations were written by someone that favors mutilate. The main issue would be what spec you would go to maximize backstab (full sub). I would like the original author to reproduce the calculations with the favorable talents included for backstab(20/0/41). The attack power and agility are both increased in sub, as well as 10% bonus to backstab, making crit and dps both higher on the base for backstab to compute these calculations. The difference of 8% that is achieved by these calculations lacking the 10% to AP, 15% to agi, 10% to backstab would clearly be over matched when added in, but then what does the effect of seal fate have on the calculations.
NOTE3: While it is true an allout subtlety spec would increase the damage of backstab itself, the above calculations also fail to take into account a spec that is designed to optimize total damage output utilizing mutilate. Such a spec includes dualwield specialization in the Combat tree, not only for its increase to Mutilate but for its increase to white damage as well. In short, for a raw comparison of the two abilities themselves in a situation where they're on approximately even footing, the above calculations are reasonably accurate (theory can only go so far.)
